Now or never for Bangladesh

The back-door is shut now. Had West Indies won their game last night, Bangladesh would have made it through to the quarter-finals. As it turned out, the game between West Indies and England twisted and turned, went inside-out, upside-down, before England bit another bullet and stayed alive in the tournament. Surely about a 1000 miles north, the Bangladesh players watched in hope and later in agony in their team hotel in Dhaka. Thanks to that result, Bangladesh are now a point behind England, and a long way behind every contender in terms of net run-rate. There is an upside too: Bangladesh no longer need to watch helplessly, hoping for some other team to do what is desirable for them.

It's relatively simple now: beat South Africa and go through, no who-does-what elsewhere in the group. However, just the thought and the equation are simple, not actually beating South Africa, whose pace attack - even on the slow and low pitch at Mirpur - will provide the hosts with their biggest test. South Africa have also been on a bit of a roll, their tight win against India cancelling out the close defeat to England. They will want to finish at the top of the table, and hence face the fourth-placed team in Group A. Given how this World Cup has gone, it might not be the most desirable thing to do, for it could mean they might have to face Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka.

There is no reason why Bangladesh shouldn't back themselves, though. They have beaten South Africa in a World Cup before, they have the advantage of home conditions, they have had back-to-back wins, but they also know this is not going to be easy. It's been a funny World Cup so far: Bangladesh, bowled out for 58 by West Indies, were supporting West Indies yesterday; England, great rivals of South Africa, will be supporting South Africa tomorrow, as will be West Indies.

Graeme Smith certainly doesn't want to miss a poke at England. "I think English fans are getting used to supporting South Africans these days," he said on the eve of this game.

What happens if…

South Africa win: Bangladesh are knocked out, and India, England and West Indies go through

Bangladesh win: Bangladesh go through, leaving West Indies a must-win game against India

The game is tied or no-result: England go through thanks to a superior net run-rate, and Bangladesh are left hoping West Indies lose their game on Sunday

Form guide

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Pitch and conditions

The Bangladesh part of the World Cup returns to Shere Bangla Stadium in Mirpur, where Bangladesh will like a turning surface, but it is not quite possible to create a rank turner in Mirpur. The best they can manage is the low and slow pitch that they rolled out for Ireland. There is no rain forecast, and there shouldn't be too much of early-morning freshness for this day game, because the sun is already about three-and-a-half hours old by the 9.30 am start in Bangladesh.

Watch out for...

Bangladesh's best batsman, Tamim Iqbal, hasn't had a great World Cup, and he knows how much rests on him. He will want to set that record straight, and make sure this is not his last chance in the tournament.

Graeme Smith has had his share of problems at the top of the order, but playing Bangladesh in Bangladesh provides him with a fairly good challenge before the knockouts.

Team news

Bangladesh won't make too many changes to their winning combination, except that offspinner Naeem Islam is likely to replace left-arm spinner Suhrawadi Shuvo, on account of a few left-hand batsmen in the South African line-up.

Bangladesh (probable): 1 Tamim Iqbal, 2 Imrul Kayes, 3 Junaid Siddique, 4 Shahriar Nafees, 5 Shakib Al Hasan (capt), 6 Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), 7 Mahmudullah, 8 Suhrawadi Shuvo / Naeem Islam, 9 Abdur Razzak, 10 Shafiul Islam, 11 Rubel Hossain.

South Africa are back to full fitness, and Imran Tahir may come back in place of either Johan Botha or Robin Peterson. If AB de Villiers comes back, he might not keep, which might mean that Colin Ingram, despite his 46 against Ireland, might have to sit out.

South Africa (probable): 1 Graeme Smith (capt), 2 Hashim Amla, 3 Jacques Kallis, 4 AB de Villiers, 5 JP Duminy, 6 Faf du Plessis, 7 Morne van Wyk (wk), 8 Johan Botha / Imran Tahir, 9 Robin Peterson, 10 Dale Steyn, 11 Morne Morkel